Jared Bernstein posted a blog post

Larry Summers, of all people, misses China’s role in “secular stagnation”

My old Obama admin econ team colleague Larry Summers gets some important aspects of the China story wrong in this oped today. Weirdly so, given his exposure as a top (and very effective) policymaker the last time the downsides of financial imbalances whacked the globe. Larry argues, and I agree...

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April 19, 2017

Jared Bernstein posted a blog post

What if the prime-age jobs problem is just…you know…a jobs problem?

Over at WaPo. Of course, this begs the question what to do about it. I tried to get into some of that in recent testimony, and while I focus largely on the demand side, I do not at all dismiss the supply side, including training and help with medical/physical/addiction challenges. I have been f...

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April 19, 2017

Jared Bernstein posted a blog post

If we want to boost globalization and suppress insularity, we need to understand the mechanics of trade.

Though I’m not sure exactly who “we” are, I think we are missing a rare opportunity to better understand the pressures, conflicts, costs, and benefits of international trade. And the stakes are high: continue to get this wrong and the globalization project will face increasing insular pressures...

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April 19, 2017

Jared Bernstein posted a blog post

Hilary Hahn, stop ruining my productivity!

I’m not saying she’s an agent of conservative economics, but it’s getting to the point where I cannot get to my work without a strong dose of Hilary Hahn playing this live version of Mozart’s violin concerto #3. This morning, it was the third movement, which begins just before minute 17. Especi...

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April 19, 2017

Jared Bernstein posted a blog post

UBI & I

A few weeks ago, Jason Furman and I participated in one of those Intelligence Squared debates on the premise that the Universal Basic Income is the safety net of the future. We were opposed and that has surprised some of my friends and colleagues who figured I would be for a UBI. We’re hoping ...

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April 19, 2017

Jared Bernstein posted a blog post

I’m concerned re the lack of nominal acceleration of the blue-collar wage.

I said I’d get back to my tweet from this AM showing the deceleration in real wage growth, particularly for blue-collar workers. This is not exactly the stuff of 140 characters. One can decompose the change in real weekly earnings for private-sector workers into three parts: changes in nominal ...

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April 19, 2017

Jared Bernstein posted a blog post

Just a little free-floating nervousness re the business cycle to start out your week…

Over at WaPo, re current economic conditions. I mention the slowing of real, blue-collar wages in the piece as something that’s important in terms of a constraint on consumer spending (70% of GDP, fyi). Their hourly pay has been flat over the past year, same with their weekly earnings. Basicall...

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April 19, 2017

Jared Bernstein posted a blog post

Tax day! And does anybody, other than the obvious suspects, really want a big regressive tax cut?

Here’s a useful editorial from the WaPo on a long-time CBPP theme: fully fund the damn IRS, damnit! Stiffing the agency is increasingly a back-door way for R budget cutters to provide an implicit tax cut to their funders: Attacking the IRS is a particularly expensive way to play to the crowd. I...

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April 19, 2017

Jared Bernstein posted a blog post

OTEpc #7: Inclusive immigration policies

Episode #7 of the On the Economy podcast, on the fiscal and economic impacts of immigration, is yours for the clicking. Our guests–Erica Williams and Meg Wiehe, take us through their timely, important research about the benefits of inclusive immigration policies for unauthorized immigrants. And...

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April 19, 2017

Jared Bernstein posted a blog post

Supply-side, trickle-down nonsense on the NYT oped page

There’s a robust debate to be had as to why the NYT published this op-ed on the alleged economic benefits of trickle-down tax cuts, as virtually every paragraph touts an alternative fact. It is the opinion page, I guess, and the authors advise (or at least advised) the president, so I can see w...

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April 19, 2017

Jared Bernstein posted a blog post

Two links re the current debate on taxes, trade

On taxes, Trump’s big operating losses provide a useful microcosm of how the tax system is rigged, if you can call an almost billion dollar claim against future tax liabilities in 1995 “micro.” On trade, here’s what a “smart, fair” agenda looks like to me.

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October 4, 2016

Jared Bernstein posted a blog post

Hold up, New Jersey! It’s time to take a stand against our terrible tax debate.

This has been a terrible few weeks for tax policy. Donald Trump declares himself “smart” for tax avoidance; leaked returns show him to have claimed almost a billion in losses, much of which stems from ways in which the code privileges those selling real estate, which he presumably has used to w...

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October 4, 2016

Jared Bernstein posted a blog post

Reminder re comments

I typically delete comments that get within spitting distance of unpleasant, nasty, name-calling, etc.

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October 4, 2016

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Jared Bernstein posted a blog post

My comments on CBPP’s Census Data press call today

Someone asked me to post them, so here they are: First, just so this doesn’t get lost in the mix, let me say why I think these data are so important. After all, given that they’re for last year, they don’t exactly move markets. What’s the big deal? The big deal is that these Census data give us...

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September 30, 2016

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Jared Bernstein posted a blog post

PowerPoint deck from Wash U presentation

Some folks from the excellent audience at Wash U’s Brown School of Social Work conference last week asked for the slides from my presentation: here they are.

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September 30, 2016

Jared Bernstein posted a blog post

Take the last train to Factville

…and I’ll meet you at the (polling) station (the boomers will get this reference; you youngsters get off my lawn!). Over at WaPo, I tout a recent spate of CBPP papers that struck me as particularly germane re what we’re not talking about when we’re talking about birthers. That piece examines wh...

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September 30, 2016

Jared Bernstein posted a blog post

Rare Tuesday Musical Interlude

My day got off to a great start today thanks to an anonymous gift of the CD The Procrastinator by jazz trumpeter Lee Morgan with a stellar group of sidemen, including vibist Bobby Hutcherson, recently featured on these pages. (On 2nd thought, I think I just forgot who gave me this CD; my bad, b...

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September 30, 2016

Jared Bernstein posted a blog post

Chair Yellen, bless her heart (and mind), remains in data-driven mode

Over at WaPo, with a focus on this biz about “the economy still has running room.” I explain how I understand it, show some indicators that reinforce the point, and add my own wrinkle, one I consider very important: allowing for more running room has the potential to create even more running ro...

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September 30, 2016

Jared Bernstein posted a blog post

The new rules of the road: a progressive approach to globalization.

For the last few months, Lori Wallach (the director of Public Citizen’s Global Trade Watch) and I have been working on what we think of as new “rules of the road” for global trade. I’ve highlighted some of these ideas already in these parts, and a recent summary of our agenda just ran in The Am...

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September 30, 2016

Jared Bernstein posted a blog post

Anatomy of a hawkish dove

Eric Rosengren, the President of the Boston Federal Reserve Bank, was one of three dissenting votes in the Fed’s decision last week not to raise the benchmark interest rate they control. Since Rosengren has a pretty dovish record—he’s not one to see spiraling inflation around every corner, when...

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September 30, 2016

Jared Bernstein posted a blog post

Trump, Yellen, the Fed, and the Election

Over at WaPo…file this under monetary political economy. Trump’s comments about the Fed were way off, no surprise. But I’m glad the topic came up and hope it continues to be part of the debate.

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September 30, 2016

Jared Bernstein posted a blog post

Trade, trickle down, and the Fed: Revisiting three points from the big debate

Before the first presidential debate fades into the next news cycle, there are three economic points that bear revisiting: We need a new paradigm for trade policy. The outsider campaigns of Trump and Sanders, along with the realities of many people and communities hurt by globalization, have el...

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September 30, 2016

Jared Bernstein posted a blog post

Bold, smart, progressive ideas to strengthen Social Security

For reasons I’ll get to in a moment, I was really struck by the title of this excellent, important new paper by my CBPP colleague Kathleen Romig: Increasing Payroll Taxes Would Strengthen Social Security. It is well understood that Social Security’s financing needs shoring up; we’ve been drawin...

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September 30, 2016

Jared Bernstein posted a blog post

Goldilocks rising: job market not too hot, not too cold

The pace of employment gains slowed slightly in August, as payrolls were up 151,000 and the unemployment rate held steady at 4.9 percent. Despite the fact that expectations were for 180,000 jobs, the lower number in today’s report should not at all be taken as a change in the solid, underlying ...

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September 9, 2016

Jared Bernstein posted a blog post

Uber hours, and some Labor Day housecleaning

Noam Scheiber has an interesting piece up at the NYT on choices made by Uber drivers as to how many hours they work (Scheiber’s stuff on the evolving workplace is must-read journalism, IMHO). Apparently, some drivers work more when fares are low and less when they’re high (Uber boosts fares in ...

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September 9, 2016

Jared Bernstein posted a blog post

The non-mystery of declining employment rates for prime-age workers

Allow me to pile on alongside Dean Baker on this alleged mystery-of-the-missing-men, the theme of an NPR story that Dean critiques. There’s little mystery here: the driving factor is the loss of employment opportunities, or what economists call weak labor demand, particularly for non-college-ed...

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September 9, 2016

Jared Bernstein posted a blog post

A small and obvious point about high-visibility campaigns in capitalist economies…

There’s a lot of justified buzz about what a bad job Matt Lauer did in his interview of the candidates last night. Jon Chait labeled Lauer’s decisions about what to focus on and his failure of critical follow-ups as “pathetic” and I agree. Awfully hard to make this democracy thing work when the...

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September 9, 2016

Jared Bernstein posted a blog post

New paper from our full employment project: Binder/Rodrigue on updating Fed toolbox

Last week, the Center on Budget and Policy Priorities’ Full Employment Project published an important new paper—Monetary Rules and Targets: Finding the Best Path to Full Employment—by Haverford’s Carola Binder and Alex Rodrigue (B&R). The paper takes a close look at a critical aspect of how...

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September 9, 2016

Jared Bernstein posted a blog post

If we refuse to go after BIG tax avoiders, then we have no standing to stop others from doing so.

Imagine you live on a nice street with nice neighbors, but there’s a problem. Your teenage son recklessly speeds along the street, knocking down garbage cans and leaving skid marks on the well-kept lawns. The neighbors hold their tongues, expecting you to intervene and discipline the boy, at l...

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August 31, 2016

Jared Bernstein posted a blog post

Bird flu, FTAs, and how some rules of the road are better than others

Chad Bown of the Peterson Institute sends me a link to a piece of his showing, he argues, a benefit we get from “free-trade” agreements (FTAs) that’s under-appreciated in a national debate that’s turned extremely hostile to FTAs. It’s about last year’s bird flu outbreak, and he makes the case t...

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August 31, 2016

Jared Bernstein is now a member of Berrett-Koehler Community